History Repeats Itself: The Last Time Labour Won a By-election from a Different Party in Scotland

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Description

Welcome back to another episode of Fit For Purpose. In today's Friday Take, hosts Matthew McPherson and Nick Forbes are back from the Labour Party conference but are feeling a little under the weather with the conference flu cold. They dive into the recent happenings in the world of politics, including by elections, a party defection, and the impact on the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Tune in as they discuss the surprising results in the Rutherglen by election, the possible implications for the upcoming general election, and even test their political knowledge with a pub quiz question. Get ready for a lively discussion on the changing dynamics in Scottish politics and the renewed energy within the Labour party. Let's get started!

Transcript

Matthew McPherson (00:02.37)

Well, good afternoon, Nick. We're back from the Labour Party Conference. I am absolutely full of a cold, conference flu cold type thing. How are you feeling?

Nick (00:13.924)

Well you see, that's the Labour Party for you. We want to share everything. So congratulations on having the annual conference socialist cold. No, I know what you mean. Equally I'm still a bit recovering. And of course you must be doubly exhausted having done both conferences this year, not just the Labour one.

Matthew McPherson (00:37.782)

Well, I had the problem of actually arriving at the Labour Party conference with a conference cold having done the Conservative Party conference the week before. I have to say the two conferences were very different in a way that isn't normally the case in most years. I'm sure we can come on to that in a minute. But it's been a little while since we've spoken and quite a lot has happened in the world of politics with the end of summer recess, by-elections and reshuffle and all the rest of it.

Nick (01:10.373)

It's... we were saying I think before the summer, the next six or eight weeks or so are going to be a fairly quiet time in politics. Well, we turned out to be not very good at reading the runes, did we? Because an awful lot has happened, as he said, and I guess...

Well, topically today we've got a slightly bizarre prospect of an SNP MP defecting to the Conservatives. Now, of all of the political journeys to go on, that feels to me an extremely unusual one. I don't know if you've ever come across anything like that before.

Matthew McPherson (01:42.582)

think you can understand when MPs defect from the conservatives to Labour or Labour to the conservatives or even to the Liberal Democrats, there's a, you have people on different wings of the party that, that can have shared issues and we see a whole load of cross party working, something that we do an awful lot of. Um, but to defect from one side of the constitutional divides to another does seem pretty extraordinary. I mean, Lisa Cameron, uh, is someone we've done a bit of work with before, and she's always been an MP that maybe hasn't been, you know,

totally aligned to the leadership of the SNP and has always had some, some concerns there and has been quite vocal in those concerns, but it does seem an extraordinary defection today. And one I think has taken the political, political worlds by surprise.

Nick (02:28.12)

And as I say, it's odd crossing that political divide from being an independent campaigner to being a unionist campaigner.

It begs the question, I think, has the SNP lost its way in the debate? And that was a very similar message that was coming out of the Rutherglen by-election, which of course only happened very recently, but where there was an absolutely stonking swing from the SNP to Labour. I mean, we talked a bit about the circumstances why that by-election came about, but there was no doubt about it. That by-election looked like...

it turned the theoretical concept of Labour's recovery in Scotland into a demonstrable recovery in Scotland on the ground. And that isn't just significant in terms of where the independence debate is going, it's significant from a general election point of view as well.

Matthew McPherson (03:17.678)

I thought the result in Revaglum was absolutely extraordinary. And I was struck by Professor John Curtis, the pollster who seems to stand in front of us at election, general election night and give us the exit poll. He was saying that if this, that swing in Rutherglen West it was a by-election swing, but if that was repeated in a general election, you would basically go back to pre-2015 levels of Scottish politics.

over 40 seats, around 45 seats, and the SNP we back down to six, which does seem extraordinary, but it does seem that they're in huge trouble now as a party and are really staring down the prospect of losing an awful lot of seats at the general election.

Nick (04:01.436)

John Curtis, he must have run out of superlative words to use by now because he seems to have gone through the entire thesaurus in some TV interviews I saw. But I agree and of course from a Labour point of view there's huge caution about making any predictions about what this might mean. But it does look like the party is back in business as a serious player in Scotland now, after almost a decade of feeling like it was in decay and

Matthew McPherson (04:01.57)

Did you?

Nick (04:30.416)

that renewal point for labour seems to be matched by a point of decay and falling apart really for the SNP. They seem to have lost their primary focus, they seem to have lost their kind of united sense of drive.

I think what the SNP are feeling is the absence of Nicola Sturgeon actually as leader because she was in my view one of those people who was able to hold together that coalition for such a long time that they now the new First Minister just doesn't seem to be able to do anymore

Matthew McPherson (05:05.758)

I was really struck pre the by-election at last week's Tory Party conference, speaking to MPs and sort of senior members of the Scottish Conservatives, who had thought that Labour would win the by-election, but probably only by a reasonably small margin. I was talking to a political editor from one of the major news stations who said pretty much the same, that we could expect maybe a narrow win of around a thousand or, you know, 2000 votes for Labour, which still would have been a remarkable success for the party, but to win by...

10,000, nearly 10,000 with almost 60% of the vote. It's a better result than they got even in 2010 when Labour actually did better in Scotland than they'd done in the previous election despite losing the whole UK wide general election. Were you surprised by the result? Did you think it would be using your Labour background to think it would be as good as it was? If

Nick (05:35.26)

Thank you.

Nick (05:59.304)

Well the party did pull out all the stops for it and by-elections aren't always an indicator of a wider general election but a couple of things feel significant here. Firstly the size of the swing

because I think the percentage swing is in a way probably more significant than the actual votes cast because that shows you the direction of travel of people's intention and I think it felt far more than SNP voters just sitting on their hands. It felt like people actively switching to labour and that was certainly the message that was coming back on the ground. So there's a labour renewal going on at a time when it feels like the other parties are slipping a bit, that's one thing. And then...

of course there's the wider political implications about this because politics often is about a sense of momentum and a sense of direction of travel and who's on the up and who's on the down. And what the by-election results confirmed I think is that the movement is with labour, the impetus is with labour.

and the energy is with Labour. We might want to touch on some of that after the conferences too. And it feels to me as though this is actually not dissimilar to the mid-1990s when we were at the last few years of a Conservative government and opposition parties were winning by-elections with more and more significant swings. And that...

was a sign that the government was finished really and it was just a matter of time and it feels to me as though that's happening over again. And now I know you're a political nerd, Matthew, can you think of the last by-election that Labour won in Scotland? Not held, not a by-election that they held, but a by-election that they actually won from a different party and when it was?

Matthew McPherson (07:58.63)

Oh, you are really challenging me now.

Nick (08:05.256)

I'll put you out of your misery.

Matthew McPherson (08:05.406)

I was going to say Perth, but the SNP won it.

Nick (08:10.048)

No, it was 1964 and the constituency was Rutherglen. What a coincidence, eh? Yeah.

Matthew McPherson (08:15.286)

Wow, I really didn't, that is extraordinary. What a coincidence. So that was the last time the Labour Party gained a seat in Scotland.

Nick (08:20.988)

So there you are. Well, if you can...

Nick (08:26.689)

Yes, so that is something for your political pub quiz evening.

Matthew McPherson (08:32.854)

Well, I'm looking forward to the questions coming up. It's a shame because I go to these pub quizzes and it seems like the political questions never actually come up, but one day, fingers crossed.

Nick (08:41.732)

I know it's always about sport and music isn't it? I mean nobody has any interest in any of those things. I mean come on, we want to know what was the majority that so-and-so got in Glenrothes in 1956? Within the nearest 500. Anyway, we were talking about the energy being with labour and

Matthew McPherson (08:44.194)

now.

Nick (08:59.944)

I have to say that, you know, I was saying about the mid 1990s, I am old enough to remember what it was like in the mid 1990s and going to Labour Party conferences in 1995 and 1996, when there was that similar energy about the Labour Party and...

growing expectation that the party was moving towards power and I also thought we saw that in some of the protests actually because the closer that Labour gets to power the more people treat it seriously and the more people in the hard left of the party cry betrayal before they've even had a chance to do anything which is a fairly familiar motif. Does that feel like it how it was from your point of view seeing both the party conferences?

Matthew McPherson (09:43.322)

I felt that the Labour Party Conference, it was extraordinary. And it was, I was there last year for the first time in 2022. And it felt very, very different to last year. It felt far more business had really arrived. Last year, people were starting to take notice. They were starting to take their labour engagement more seriously. But really this year, it felt like business has arrived. And I was struck when we were talking with Roy Kennedy on, on Saturday night, which feels like an age ago now, but it was only a few days.

that he was saying that there'd be 20,000 conference passes issued, which is pretty extraordinary. I paid that to the 13,000 at the conservative conference the week before. If you want my observation, I think it felt like a conservative party conference when they're on the up. It felt like.

Business was there in force. You felt you saw more business there than you did with party members. I saw that Labour published some figures to say that business members were 28% of the total attendees compared to 24% of regular party members. Now, I think that just meant that there were more businesses coming rather than less members, but it felt like a party where there was excitement. People were keen to engage and really pleased to see that shadow ministers and MPs from, you know, backbench MPs.

were actually keen to engage and actually we saw that with all of our events as well. We had some fantastic events, whether it was Florence Eshelomi, the shadow democracy minister, whether it was Abhinav Ruponga Sarai, the shadow women's health minister who we did an event with earlier this week. It was one of our first events. Or Ruth Cadbury as well and many others. You know, I think it was really good to see that engagement that you know, businesses arrived and the Labour Party is keen to speak to them and I think regardless of your politics people

welcome that because it is that engagement that helps form better policies at the end of the day.

Nick (11:40.344)

And there was definitely professionalism there that hasn't always been there at Labour Party conferences in previous years. And I've been to Labour Party conferences where people have basically banged on about the evils of big business and corporate world and so on. And the...

The mood in the conversations we were having felt very different, didn't they? They felt much more productive, much more focused on issues like how do we fix the skills gap challenges that our country faces for the future? How can we get the right infrastructure in place to allow the economy to grow? What does that mean in terms of approaches in the regions and how do we connect our regions more collectively? How do we invest in young people? How do we encourage a spirit of entrepreneurship in a way that isn't just about people

exploiting others but is about respectful of society and the wider environment and all of these conversations I think felt like there were partnership conversations between Labour representatives, business representatives, young people, trade unionists and I thought the quality of the content that we discussed in all of our sessions and we covered so many issues over the three or four days we were there in Liverpool was really good. Lots of rich information there about ideas, thoughts that we need to be thinking

feed that into Labour's policy processes.

Matthew McPherson (13:03.246)

So Nick, we did, I think, 12 events at the Labour Party Conference. They all went by so quickly, but I think you did nine of those 12. What was your favorite discussion? Where do you think we had the best engagement from shadow ministers and MPs?

Nick (13:15.688)

Yes, I think so. Do you understand why I've lost count? Because you know what it's like after about day two of conference, you're just into a little zombie world of your own where you just manage your way through. But no, it was... I thought we had some really interesting contributions and also offers of help. And that's...

again really interesting and exciting for Labour, the fact that people are identifying how their organisation or their charity or their interest group can align with a bigger political agenda. And there's no doubt that Keir's speech, when it was eventually delivered in the hall, got a pretty rapturous reception from the party and had pretty good feedback consistently across the commentary at as well I think.

Matthew McPherson (14:02.946)

Well, the question on his speech, of course, is have you purchased your Sparkle with Starmer t-shirt yet, which I saw very quickly went on sale on Tuesday evening. And I thought was a fantastic response to what could have been a disaster in terms of a protest to getting onto the stage. And I think it obviously raises some security concerns. But but I think the party have played that very, very well.

Nick (14:24.752)

Well, and actually, I've been on stages before that people have stormed and it is not a nice experience. Particularly if you're about to give a speech in front of a audience, it really matters and you're really focusing on it. And then to have something like that happen and not knowing what's happening, you know, certainly when it happened to me it really shook me. And I thought Keir's composed response, the way that he just took his jacket off...

deliberately rolled his sleeves up and then made that point about Labour is a party of power not protest I thought I don't think I don't think he could have had a lot any better in terms of the response because he must have Must have had an impact on him personally But he just was determined to get on with the speech and deliver it and that for me was

almost as much as the content of the speech, as a mark of the leadership that Key has shown over the last few years. Because let's not forget, three and a half years ago, some of us were asking, did the Labour Party have a future? And look at it now.

Matthew McPherson (15:25.89)

think as well if you think about the way that the party has changed over the last couple of years in 2021 which was two years ago it's his first in-person conference speech the entire speech was dominated by slow hand clapping protesters people getting up and really screaming at him in the audience that was the only interruption in his speech one protester and that is quite remarkable for things to have changed as dramatically as they have

Nick (15:55.968)

I fully expected there to be some kind of protest when he mentioned Israel because we knew he was going to have to mention the awful attack on Israel and I was a bit disturbed to see some people handing out Palestinian lanyards at a time of great...

sensitivity and I thought that was very insensitive to be doing that inside the conference venue and I fully expect there'd be some kind of protest over that but actually the Kier's words on Israel and Announced, you know saying that Israel must have the right to defend herself I think got the biggest line of applause of anything in his speech and that Tells you how much he has changed the Labour Party I remember KIA saying to the first NEC meeting after he was elected that his first challenge was to root

anti-Semitism and that reception from that line in the speech for me was the indication of course it's never completely done but he's won that battle loud and clearly very firmly and is now absolutely in charge of the party.

Matthew McPherson (17:02.818)

So we've said how we've had great engagement at the conference. We've seen we've had lots of shadow ministers and MPs and Metro mayors as well doing our panels. And also parliamentary candidates, which I think is really important because a lot of these candidates are very likely to be MPs fairly soon. One of the things I wanted to touch on is, is what next? You know, we might have another party conference before the general election. We might not. But how can organisations best...

If they haven't engaged at conference, how can they best take that forward and continue engaging, continue helping shape that policy agenda before the next election?

Nick (17:43.032)

Well, you and I were discussing this before the conference season kicked off and...

We know that, certainly from a Labour point of view, now that Labour's conference is over, the conference will have agreed the content and shape, broadly the shape of the manifesto around the five missions that Keir announced. So we know that those are gonna be the main pillars and themes of the manifesto. And we were saying this, what we wanted to do was use some of our events at conference this year to test out some of those issues, which is exactly what we did. So we talked about skills, infrastructure,

opportunity, investing in health and social care staff, the workforce, those kind of issues, which aligns very clearly with Labour's five missions. And we had great engagement from purpose coalition members and we had some fantastic speakers from across the board.

many universities wanting to position themselves in terms of economic drivers as well as just places of excellent learning, translating that research that our universities are doing which is of such consistently high quality into economic opportunity for people, creating jobs that help people from a whole range of backgrounds get on and progress, tackling social mobility consistently at a place working in partnership with other organisations. So some great contributions from our purpose members.

the next task is to start putting this together more consistently where there's a series of issues in policy terms that Labour is interested in, wants to discuss further and where we have something to offer and where our coalition members really feel that their expertise will be valued and appreciated and I think some round tables, some conversations ultimately lead to policy papers that we can say not from a manifesto point of view here are some demands from us but here are

Nick (19:36.45)

ways in which we can help you deliver on your agenda more quickly, Labour, I think that's probably the next stage of our work over the next six months or so.

Matthew McPherson (19:45.23)

And of course there's plenty of opportunities for purpose collection members to be doing that because in a couple of weeks time you're chairing a round table with Helen Hayes, the shadow children's and early years minister who I think is a real star of the party and is someone that will go very far. I saw actually at conference John McTernan, the sort of Labour commentator who was really tipping her for big things. We've got a round table on the future of social mobility and digital and tech that you're obviously also chairing.

with Alex Davies Jones, another star. And actually I heard one of our purpose coalition members the other day saying how well she handled detailed policy questions from experts in the tech sector, which is not an easy thing to do when you're a shadow minister and you've got so many competing pressures without a big team of civil servants around you. And also our event with the shadow economic secretary to the treasury, Tulip Siddique on flexible working.

And there's a whole range of, you know, that's just a couple of the different things that we've got coming up over the next few months. We really will be a good opportunity to start, you know, continue conveying those messages.

Nick (20:50.716)

I know our members are organisations which don't take a particular political stance and of course we're not asking them to but in the context of where we are as a country, in the context of the sense that

we need a whole scale program of renewal across public life, civic life, society, infrastructure, government, you know, there's a whole lot of stuff for us to do and if we don't have a clear focus then people will want to do things but get frustrated that they can't find a way in and so our job I think is to link the ambition of our members to make a change because that comes through loud

Nick (21:38.22)

not satisfied with the status quo, wanting to make a difference. That's what drives them to be members in the first place. And we need to put that alongside labour and make sure that there's a way of showing the opportunities to work together that isn't about political support because of course our purpose coalition members will work with any government. But if labour is where the energy and momentum is and the purpose coalition is where the ideas and sense of what could be done is, then it would be a mistake not to put the two together.

and make the most of it for the interests of the country.

Matthew McPherson (22:12.798)

I think that's absolutely right. Well, Nick, it's been great to chat today. I am going to go for a lem sip and try and recover from this conference flu before we get back into it. But.

Nick (22:25.94)

Well, at least you haven't got to go to the SNP one next week, which probably got a feeling that, well, who knows, who knows, you might be throwing things other than just glitter.

Matthew McPherson (22:31.382)

Well, given today's news, I suspect it will be a fairly eventful conference.

Matthew McPherson (22:41.57)

Yeah, well, we'll find out when Humza takes to the stage on Sunday. But great to chat and thanks for listening.

Nick (22:43.945)

Um,

Nick (22:48.741)

Yes.

Well, and thanks again, Matthew, for all of your help at conference. And I think the fact that the Purpose Coalition did so many events and got such great attendance at them shows that our influence has significantly grown within Labour circles over the last year and very much looking forward to the next six months where we turn all that policy discussion into a more realistic programme for what a government could help us to deliver. So

Matthew McPherson (23:18.027)

Well, I look forward to it.

Nick (23:18.82)

plenty to discuss in the future. We'll see you next week.

Matthew McPherson (23:21.806)

See you next week.